Cloud of Hope and Fear 

Last week witnessed two press conferences – one by National Meteorology Agency and the other by the Ethiopian Government Communications Office chaired by Redwan Hussein. The government was announcing its preparedness to respond to the rain failure that occurred mostly in Afar Regional State, Eastern and Western Hararge. But the problem may be affecting other areas, too.

Yenenew Teke, 60, a father of six, is worried about what is in stock for his family and his neighbours living in Delanta wereda, in southern Wollo zone, 598 north east of Addis Abeba. As a survivor of the 1984/85 famine, his concern is obvious.

The crops in the area had suffered a series of problems in the past year, although the impact has not yet been devastating. First there was frost which affected last Meher’s harvest from November to December. Then the rains were short during Belg (March – May). The Meher damage was comparatively minimal, with a yield of 300,038ql down the planned 386,301ql from 19,362 ha of cultivated land in Delanta, according to data from the wereda’s agriculture office. The office says that 8,808ql were destroyed, because of rainfall shortage, 22,311ql due to frost during the months of November, December and January and the rest due to reasons said to be unclear.

Making matters worse, Delanta suffered a total loss of its Belg (March and April) crops of lentils, bean and guaya (Fabaceae), which were cultivated on 5,392ha of land with an expected yield of 94,056ql.

This damage has not left the people unscathed. Out of Delanta’s population of 150,000, 40,000 have already been identified as needing emergency food aid, according to Tesfaye Alemnew, head of the Agriculture office at Delanta. The wereda predominantly produces teff, wheat, barley, maize, lentils and sorghum. As the rainy season came late and was shorter than expected, the area is now experiencing drought.

The first signs of significant rainfall were seen on July 31, 2015 and since then the last time was on August 8, 2015, according to farmers and agriculture experts at the wereda.

“This is almost the same weather condition which we experienced 30 years ago during the 1984 famine,” Yenenew told Fortune on August 12, 2015, speaking of the drought infamously identified by the Ethiopian calendar year of 1977. “We are in a trauma of the past and we are in a fear that the rain may not fall as it is needed.”

There are even people who associate the fact that this has occurred after 30 years as bad fortune, linking the number seven of 1977 and 2007 of Ethiopian calendar, he says.

According to a 1991 study by Dessalegn Rahmato, an agricultural researcher, Famine & Survival Strategies – a Case study from Northeast Ethiopia, the monthly rainfall amount recorded in March, April, May, July, August and September during 1984 was 14.4 mm, 22.2 mm, 18.7 mm, 120 mm, 33.6 mm and 124.3 mm, respectively, in Ambassel awraja (zone) and Haiq station.

On the other hand the monthly weather bulletin of the national meteorology agency for rainfall from July 1 to July 31, 2015 shows that the highest rainfall recorded in the area – Wegel Tena station, was 68mm. It also forecasted that the rainfall volume in northern Wollo will be less than the average amount and in some north and eastern parts of the country the rain shortage is expected to continue for months of August.

Fortune met a group of seven farmers at Kebele 02 in Delanta. The agriculture bureau encourages the farmers in this kebele to specialise in wheat growing. These farmers had different sized farmlands and their wealth differed accordingly. But they had the same concerns.

Yenenew, one of the seven, has 2.75ha of land. He is one of the model farmers. On the other hand, Fetene Kassaye, 74, has 0.75ha, a much smaller of land; he is considered vulnerable and is included under the productive safety net programme (PSNP). The wereda has a total of 17,585 farmers under PSNP.

“I have lost my crops because of frost; I am supporting my family selling the crop for animal feed,” said Fetene.

He is now hoping for the rain to continue regularly.

Farmers and extension workers told Fortune that farmers are beginning to sell their livestock to buy food.

This seems to be on the mind of Hailu Menberu, who said he was going to sell three sheep.

“In the last week of July, I was on the verge of selling the sheep, then when it started raining I changed my mind,” said Hailu. But then it stopped raining again.

“Now I will definitely sell them,” he stressed.

Above all, the farmers see two sides to the risk. If it rains now and they sow, a month later than the normal time, the crop could grow at a time when it will be vulnerable to frost. If it does not rain at all, there will still be the impact of the drought, which is worse

Given the small amount of rainfall that has come by the beginning of August, the office was assisting the farmers to sow wheat, according to Asnake Dejenu, agricultural extension officer, interviewed at the Kebele on August 12, 2015.

However, given the reality on the ground the farmers are sowing with the hope that the rain will continue, he added, despite the fear of frost months ahead.

Six ponds in the area, where cattle used to drink, have already dried.

“I never saw such weather conditions in my career,” Asnake said. “As an extension worker, we have been closely working with them to meet up with the planned productivity level; however, now it is no longer about surpluses, rather it is about being able to produce something despite the rainfall.”

Delanta had proposed to produce 514,048ql during the Meher harvest, which depends on the rains now. This plan was made when normal rain was expected, said Tesfaye.

To overcome the challenges, the office has already distributed 129ql of chickpeas and has identified 40 locations for ground water search.

For this we have requested the regional state to provide machines for digging the ground and moreover it is in the pipeline to distribute 60ql of animal feed, said Tesfaye. The agriculture office has distributed to 18 cooperatives, 400lt of insecticide and 4,000ql of improved seeds.

There is also a committee that comprises non-governmental organisations (NGOs), in the area. Among them is Concern Ethiopia, an Irish-based charity working on poverty reduction, nutrition, risk and vulnerability.

Concern has a four year integrated development programme which will be phased out in December 2015. Following the crop failure of the Belg season, Concern has distributed 300ql of potatoes.

Moreover, observing cases of malnutrition in the area, Concern’s office there has asked for assistance for pregnant mother, infants and children, from its head office, said Endris Hussien, manager of Integrated Development Programmes at Concern Ethiopia.

In addition to these local efforts the federal government has now allocated 700 million Br for emergency responses to the drought. From this 168 million Br will be used for improved seeds that have short growing time; 96 million Br for animal feed, 32 million Br for livestock medicine, 36 million Br for insecticide and the rest for moisture reserve work.

During a press brief Redwan Hussein acknowledged the need for this response.

“We have enough stock of grain that can feed the country in case of any emergency,” Misrak Molla, director of Strategic Grain Reserve Agency, told Fortune, although she said she could not give exact figures as she was out of office.

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) is to release its updated report on Humanitarian Requirements in 2015, on August 18, 2015 in the presence of donor partners and Ethiopian government officials.

According to the report, first released in January, an estimated 2.9 million beneficiaries require emergency relief food assistance. However this figure is expected to increase, according to OCHA’s August 3’s weekly humanitarian bulletin.

 


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