Renaissance Dam: Is It Worth Building?

A historic moment, dreamed of for generations, became a reality on April 2, 2011, with the announcement of the commencement of construction on the largest hydroelectric power dam in Africa – the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). This 4.8 billion dollar project is taking place on the Blue Nile River, in North western Ethiopia, in the Buamza Kebele of Benshangul Gumuz Regional State – an area free from volcanic activities.

This 145 metre high and 1,780 metre long dam, with a 63 billion cubic metre reservoir – double the size of Lake Tana – is being built by Salini Costruttori. Out of the 10,000Mw potential of the Blue Nile River, the Dam will enable the nation to generate 6,000Mw – almost double the electricity of the Aswan High Dam in Egypt.

As the reservoir is to be built in a deep gorge, minimising the water’s direct exposure to sunlight, the estimated rate of evaporation loss from the dam’s reservoir is only around 1.7 billion cubic metres a year. It is estimated that the GERD saves the loss of three billion cubic metres of water from evaporation. Undoubtedly, Ethiopia has the legitimacy to utilise this water for irrigation purposes.

The increase in energy supply, from 2,000Mw to 8,000Mw – a 400pc increment – is indeed sizable for the economy of Ethiopia. As much as energy is the raw material needed to fuel any country’s economy growth, a reliable power supply could enable Ethiopia to make energy-intensive manufacturing a major part of its economy.

A reliable and affordable source of energy, such as the GERD, is, therefore, fundamental not only for our wellbeing, but also for our economic growth and poverty reduction. Many rural communities in Ethiopia still do not have the associated benefits in health and quality of life provided by electrical services, such as lighting and refrigeration.

Thus, it is expected that the construction of the dam and deployment of alternative energy technologies could provide a solution for these areas. The availability of energy supply increases school enrollment and healthcare services in the country also, as it facilitates the application of modern technology in both sectors.

Ethiopia also aspires to be the green energy hub of East Africa. It has already signed contracts to sell electricity to Kenya, Djibouti, South Sudan and Sudan. Consequently, the GERD will provide an additional income of two million Euros in the sale of electricity to neighboring countries.

According to various studies, a unit percent increase in energy supply increases economic growth by at least one percent. Therefore, when the GERD begins operations, the national economy will increase by an additional four percent.

The Dam will be located in an area where there are no significant human settlements or economic activities. The locality is sparsely populated. Yet, the reservoir will have a five kilometre buffer zone to mitigate the risk of an increase in malaria.

In fact, the project is expected to have positive environmental and social impacts. It will make the Sudanese dams free from siltation and floods, ensuring a regular and stable water flow throughout the year and providing larger quantities of water, including through the reduction of evaporation.

The Dam could also further the political goal of national unification, in addition to the economic goals of income generation and domestic electricity supply, thereby playing its own role in the national development efforts. It has already brought development, including new roads, bridges and a clinic at its site.

An increasing share of renewable energy in the energy mix of the country can also help to reduce the environmental impacts associated with non-renewable ones and ensure the long-term availability of energy supply. Without affordable and unlimited electric supply around the clock, no industrial development can take place. This means that Ethiopia’s economic growth may be short-lived, unless the country strives to produce clean hydroelectric energy.

The multitude impacts of the Dam also include helping Ethiopia to gain leverage in the course of its diplomatic relations with the lower riparian states, including the various issues surrounding the River Nile. Once the construction of the Dam is fully completed, its security is not going to be a headache of the fair nation only. The various interested groups and countries will have a strong desire for its wellbeing.

Obviously, the lower riparian states would be interested in avoiding the threat that a sudden break in the billions of cubic metres of water will pose on the safety of their own societies. Of course, uninterrupted supply of power supply from it is also another factor that would put them in a position to wish and do their best for the safety of the Dam, as well as the political stability of Ethiopia.

The impacts of the upper hand that the nation gains as a result of owning this Dam also  further extends over the neighbouring countries waiting to be its direct or indirect beneficiaries. It is, therefore,  expected that the lower riparian and neighbouring nations will strengthen their diplomatic relations and cooperation with Ethiopia, which will then be the power house of East Africa.

Given all these real upshots of building and owning the GERD, would there still be people daring enough to argue that the Blue Nile is not the source of hope, power, prosperity and pride for this fair nation?

No political force – neither the incumbent nor the inconsiderate oppositions, in Ethiopia – ought to be allowed to oppose Ethiopia’s national interests. Whatever form it takes, any deviation from it is unacceptable.

Certainly, the ruling elite are observed consistently and rightly observing the national interest without exception. This is in stark contrast to the majority of the opposition, which even fail to show their unequivocal support to the undergoing construction of the GERD. This is true in spite of the fact that it has a multitude of impacts on the lives of every citizen.

All these factors make me believe that the existence of a variance between the nature of Egypt’s politics, wherein both sides of the political aisle do not compromise their national interest, and that of Ethiopia. where the opposition consistently betrays the same due to the sensational nature of the local political culture. Given the inappropriate nature of the opposition, I remain skeptical of their capacity to properly run a government, even in a single regional state, let alone the whole nation.

Last but not least, given the degree of national optimism that accompanies the construction of the GERD in Ethiopia, I believe this national effort is unstoppable. As long as Ethiopia is adopting a win-win approach in utilising the waters of the Nile, with all riparian countries and stakeholders, building the Dam should not be worrisome.

 


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