Ending Policy Inattention towards Population Growth Vital

There seems to be no political party so fond of the theories of Ester Boserup – the popular opponent of the Malthusian population carrying capacity limitation of economies – than the ruling EPRDFites. Since, their ascendance to power in 1991, after overthrowing the 17 years pseudo-socialist military junta – the Dergue – they remain the official proponents of the line of argument that claims that population is a key resource of the nation. This is since every life brings with it the potential to produce something important within the economy.

This argument has been the foundation of their economic policies rolled out in the form of guiding sectoral policies in 2002. The predominance of labour is considered to be an advantage for the economy, since capital is presumed as competitively scarce and land staying a fixed non-tradable factor of production.

For the EPRDFites, who were trying to solve the complex formula of consolidating the national economy from the disintegrated salvages of the extended periods of war, the only factor of production with significant elasticity to produce economic momentum was found to be labour. The consensus being on the economically active section of the population.

Times have changed. The EPRDFites have succeeded, at least largely, in consolidating the economy into an integrated set of economic activities, with distinguishable relationship between activities, sectors and players. What has been consolidated has even progressively obtained speed to eventually accelerate at a pace that once amazed the world. Whereas accelerating economies, such asChinaandIndia, were slowing down, that ofEthiopia, under the leadership of the Revolutionary Democrats, sprinted beyond even resource-rich nation.

Nonetheless, the headwinds of droughts, inflation, expanding trade deficit and the foreign currency crunch had been challenging the acceleration of the economy. Its path to its current state, therefore, had been full of ups and downs. This had been painful, not only for the ruling officials, but also to the wider public.

Most of these headwinds continue to oppose the acceleration of the economy. However, an even stronger force – population growth – seems to have joined them. This will, eventually, impose an even heftier burden on the rather fragile and volatile fundamentals of the economy.

If the report released by the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) – the macro data manufacturer led by the US-educated EPRDFite, Samiya Zakaria, is anything to go by, the economy seems to face a population headwind of 85.9 million. Predictably, the tide has a rural bias, with 67.7 million people living in rural areas; close to fourfold of the 16.3 million in the urban population.

It might not be within the aggregate figures that the trouble resides, but rather within the details. A look at the population pyramid of the nation shows that the burden comes from the middle of the age structure. The middle of the structure, showing the ratio of the active population (aged between 15 and 49), as compared to the whole population, constitutes 33.5 million people, under the full-fledged census conducted in 2007.

The working population is both an asset and a liability for the economy. It could help push the economy further forward if it is accompanied with sufficient opportunities and provisions. If not, however, this population could be a liability. Eventually, liabilities often grow at an exponential rate, while economies, in contrast, grow at a geometric rate.

That seems to be the very tide that the EPRDFites are trying to tame. Visibly, however, they lack the economic instruments to bring the tide under control.

Ideologically speaking, the Revolutionary Democrats continue to fetch both prestige and political confidence from the growing population of the nation. The rural bias seems to also favour them, for they trace their roots in the agrarian society of the nation. Thus, there is justifiable political reason behind their support to the theories of the Danish economist.

Their theoretical pinnacle – the democratic development state theory – also hugely relies on the massive legitimacy tapped from a growing population. Policy consistency, an important prerequisite for the success of any developmental state, could only be realised in a democratic manner if the advocate party can stay in power for a sufficiently long period of time. Hence, population growth, if it happens with a favouring structure, could serve as an important political asset.

As a result of their ideological inclination, the EPRDFites remain adamant against initiating active policy instruments to control population. Their lip service to the challenge that population poses to the economic gains of the past decade was so pervasive that the whole issue is left to a faceless department, under the Ministry of Finance & Economic Development (MoFED). It has been over 15 years since the population policy, which was drafted largely in reaction to the huge pressure of donors, was thrown to the debris of talk shows.

Grassroots activities of population control, such as distribution of contraceptives, are mainly being done by non-governmental organisations. Whereas the world has advanced in designing and implementing tailored population policies,Ethiopia, under the EPRDFites, still struggles to improve the accessibility of conventional family planning methodologies.

Despite its well-recognised successes in enhancing the coverage of health care provision in the nation, the health ministry’s effort in promoting family planning has been seasonal, unfocused and largely duplicative of the works of the many NGOs. Hence, little has transpired in the form of reduction in the average family size. The 15.6 million households of the nation have an average family size of five.

But, the reality is far from what the EPRDFites might wish to see. The working age population is growing at an alarming rate, putting a huge burden on the economy. Shattering urban transport systems, growing unemployment, alarming rural urban migration and disturbing labour trafficking are all signs of the mismatch between the demand for economic provisions and the ability of the economy to provide the population with them.

It, therefore, seems to be the right time for the EPRDFites to reconsider their long overdue attachment to the Boserupian rhetoric. They must awaken to the pertinent population challenge, by putting effective policy instruments, institutional structures and political commitment into place.

It is only if they could fortify their population control efforts that they could realise their sustainable development agenda. Considering the force of the population tide that the economy is facing, any further policy slack from the side of the EPRDFites could have an irreversible impact on the political economy of the nation.

Such a state of affairs, certainly, could not play out in favour of anyone. This is especially true of the EPRDFites, who proclaim to push the nation up in the global income ladder to a middle-income level by 2025.


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