GERD, Symptom of African “Fertility” Challenge

When the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was announced, neighbouring Nile basin countries, including Egypt, had not been consulted. Naturally, the news was met with anxiety, and in case of Egypt, much fury, and concern over the possibility of dwindling shares in Nile water on both the long and short terms.

Ethiopia’s decision, which was seemingly unveiled overnight, is consistent with Ethiopia’s long-term plan to utilise its hydropower potential to generate electricity which it can export to neighbouring countries in exchange for badly needed hard currency.

Africa has a population problem, with some countries faring worse than others. For instance, the combined population of Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt has doubled in the last 30 years or so. Current rates of population growth range from around 1.5pc to three percent depending on the country and data source. It would be safe to predict that the population of the three nations will approach 400 million by 2050.

This population growth is the cause of the Nile water conflict.

Parallel to that hike in numbers, and in turn demand for water, the rate of fertilisers’ application and the introduction of agricultural technologies in Africa is the lowest compared to any other continent, and thus the productivity of African soils is also the lowest compared to other regions of the world.

In fact, some regions of Africa are actively depleted of their natural fertility through unsustainable cultivation practices. Aside from Egypt, where the rate of application of fertilisers is relatively high by regional standards, the rates of use of fertilisers in Sudan and Ethiopia are among the lowest compared to other countries.

How does not using fertilisers relate to what appears to be a conflict on water?

The amount of crop produced per unit volume of water is to a large degree dependent on the rate of application of fertilisers and the type of seeds used. To expand agricultural production in Africa, there are two possible routes: horizontal expansion using more land and more water, or vertical expansion using the same land and water volume but producing more crops aided by fertilisers, better seeds, and more efficient water use technologies. The first route usually leads to conflicts over land, water or both. The second route can help countries avoid these disputes.

The anaemic rate of adoption of agricultural technology combined with the rapid growth in population would significantly reduce crop production per capita and in turn the associated gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.

Under such difficult regional conditions, countries would naturally try to achieve more growth by maximising their share of the limited water resource.

However, this comes at the expense of other countries that share these common resources.

Because of this, the GERD issue seems only to be a symptom of a more serious “disease” that I choose to call the African “fertility” challenge.

In other words, although the emerging conflict over the Nile water appears at the surface to be caused by the introduction of GERD, it is indeed entrenched in more serious problems related to poor population management and a fragile agricultural infrastructure.

Moving forward, and to effectively address the conflict on the Nile water, the key is not to focus on how we fill a reservoir behind a dam here or there, but instead to address the cause of the problem by reversing the “fertility” situation. It is by finding ways to throttle growth in population numbers and nurture soil fertility across the Nile basin.

Here, I propose five elements that are necessary to include in order to achieve sustainable agreement on sharing the water between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan.

The priority is to reach an agreement between the three countries on curtailing the rate of population growth! A target population growth rate of about a percent in each of the three countries, reached within about 10 years seems ambitious enough to bring the population crisis under control.

Education is probably the best approach to address the population problem in the long-term. In particular, a goal of educating all African girls until the secondary school level should be adopted in the Nile basin countries and beyond. There is ample evidence from around the world that such level of education is associated with lower birth rates.

Secondly, a commitment from the three countries to invest in new agricultural technologies such as better seeds, greater use of fertilisers, and efficient water use technology including more efficient use of water for cropland irrigation (for example, drip irrigation) is necessary. All international partners with interest in the stability of this region should try and help bring about a significant level of adoption of agricultural technology to enhance development and economic growth while reducing the intensity of conflict over water.

Thirdly, given the natural topography of Ethiopia and the associated hydropower potential, Egypt and Sudan should welcome and support the Ethiopian plan for developing its hydropower resources. Hydropower conversion is a nonconsumptive use of water. Rather than obstructing the efforts for building the GERD, the two downstream countries (especially Egypt) should commit to playing the role of a reliable customer for Ethiopian electricity, sold at a fair market price. This should ensure a sustained flux of hard currency from Egypt to Ethiopia, which would finance badly needed development plans and help to sustain the Ethiopian economy.

Fourthly, given the natural disparity in the distribution of rainfall between Ethiopia and Egypt, Ethiopia should develop its rain-fed agriculture instead of irrigated agriculture, while ensuring a sustainable annual flux of water downstream, close to the current rate of flow into Sudan, to be divided in a separate agreement between Sudan and Egypt.

Lastly, the countries of the Eastern Nile Basin should develop a common regional approach to incorporate the potential impacts of future climate change on rainfall and river flow in any negotiated agreement. Climate change will modify the hydrology of the Nile, offering new opportunities and presenting new challenges that can only be addressed through cooperation between the three countries.


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