There is little similarity, in terms of personality, that one could find between officials of the ruling EPRDF – a political party that had been at the driving seat of policymaking in the country for the last 21 years. What seems to cement their presence under one umbrella is their inclination towards the guiding principles of Revolutionary Democracy. At the core of these principles lies the belief in a very strong and proactive state, dubbed the Democratic Developmental State.
Even then, the EPRDFites do not completely reject technocrats, who they deem to be helpful in their job of governing the country. One such example is Mekonnen Manyzewal, the overly technocratic Minister of Industry (MoI), assigned to the post by the late Meles Zenawi – who seems to have been impressed by his performance in his previous state-ministerial post at the Ministry of Finance & Economic Development (MoFED). Pushy, but sufficiently diplomatic, Mekonnen is now entrusted to transform the structure of the national economy, from its mainstay agrarian bias, towards a more job-producing industrial orientation.
At the other end of the economic aisle sits Tefera Drebew, another technocratic EPRDFite, educated in agricultural economics and delegated to oversee the transformation of the agricultural sector, which has been the backbone of the national economy for many years. Tefera’s assignment is not only about the sector itself, which contributes close to 45pc of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the nation, but also the livelihoods of the 69.7 million people of the nation employed within it.
If there is anything that separates Mekonnen from Tefera, it is political affiliation and experience. Whereas Mekonnen commands immense experience in economic planning, resource mobilisation, project designing and programme implementation, Tefera has lesser years of high-level appointments. Not least, Mekonnen is one of the few non-party member officials of the time, which gives him more operational space than Tefera, a member of the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM) – a member of the ruling coalition.
Beyond the personal differences, however, the job of realising the structural transformation of the rather volatile economy of the nation rests on the shoulders of the two officials. There is an inherent need for the lengthy bureaucratic lines that they oversee to collaborate, in order to bring a change in the composition of the aggregate product of the economy. And, the job is very crucial for both the nation and the ruling party.
At stake is the livelihood of the 80 million plus citizens of the nation, whose number is growing at an average rate of 2.7pc annually. It also involves uplifting the little over 29pc of the population currently living under absolute poverty and elevating the average per capita income of the nation from its current rate of 374.2 dollars.
No doubt that the task involves bringing a progressive shift from the sector that Tefera leads to that of Mekonnen’s. But, eventually, this has to be done without affecting the total productivity of the agriculture sector.
Total agricultural production of the nation stood at 203.5 million quintals, in 2011/2012. The average growth rate of this production has been approximately 8.7pc, between 2005/06 and 2011/12. Thus, any shift in structure should not deprive this sector of the fast growth rate that it continues to witness.
A shift to industrialisation means a growing contribution of the sector that Mekonnen oversees to the GDP, from its current rate of 5.2pc. This will eventually help to expand the size of employment that the sector offers, from its current standing of 415,000.
For the EPRDFites – who are slowly but surely evolving towards collective leadership, partly forced by their sensitivities after the death of Meles – the policy of scaling-up best practices is the panacea for the intended shift in economic structure. Learning from their recognised achievement in the agriculture sector, they resorted to organising ‘developmental armies’ as instruments of policy implementation.
Mekonnen and Tefera have taken their fair share of the challenge in the due process. For Tefera, the pertinent task has become to enhance the absorption rate of recommended rates of input supply, market linkage, extension support and productivity per hectare. For Mekonnen, on the other hand, the assignment has become to elevate the productivity of industries and reduce their wasted inefficiencies through the Japanese production philosophy, referred to as Kiezen.
Efforts by both sectors seem to be based on gross recommendations, however. Agricultural extension workers, deployed under the subordinates of Teferra’s ministry, recommend that farmers strive to reach the level of model farmers, regardless of their peculiar production challenges. The disconnect between their gross recommendations and the differing production challenges of farmers living in different areas seems to contribute to the lag in productivity growth, observed in the last production year, which stood at 4.5pc, compared to the projected 20pc.
No different is the case in the industrial sector that Mekonnen presides over. Under the Kiezen philosophy, industries are told to reduce inefficiencies and organise their production line without differentiation. The rates of reduction envisioned from them are set to be similar, even if their engagements differ massively.
A partial result of the one-size-fits-all approach has been a general lag in export earnings and struggling manufacturers. Low productivity, piling stocks and lost earnings have become norms in the sector.
It all seems to originate from the very policy choices of the EPRDFites. It all goes as such, even if history provides enough evidence about the costs of gross policy recommendations. A showcase to the situation could be the costs inflicted on the economy with the widespread efforts of digging ponds as water harvesting mechanisms, with no consideration to climatic variations.
As much as the scaling-up effort is a wise approach in bringing a sizeable economic push – an essential element in brining structural transformation – it ought to be tailored to the production challenges of farmers living in different localities and industrialists engaged in different manufacturing ventures. It is only when the technological, financial and capacity building supports, provided by the varying government agencies, are tailored to the pertinent production challenges of producers (be it farmers or industrialists) that sustainable productivity advances could be achieved.
Despite differences in their political affiliation, this seems to be how Teferra and Mekonnen ought to align their respective sectoral strategies, if their efforts are meant to bring considerable changes in the structural composition of the economy. As the end to the Growth & Transformation Plan (GTP) fast approaches, the liabilities for not doing so in time will obviously increase, which, eventually, could bring developmental results that both the nation and the ruling EPRDFites could not afford to see.
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