Status Quo Maintained, Despite Discontent

A baker in his early 30s was apathetic to the Convention of the ruling EPRDF held during the last week of August 2015, for he believed his voice, and that of many of his age group in Meqelle was not heard. A returnee from Sudan four years ago, this young man was only one among many who widely wished for the speedy conclusion of the Convention. They would have wanted to see a return to normalcy in Meqelle without the numerous SUVs that had crowded the city streets, transporting over 1,500 participants of the Convention.

In fact, the hustle and bustle had started much earlier. EPRDF’s Convention was preceded by the party in charge of running the regional state’s affairs. This caused a sense of tense disappointment and surprise felt from Meqelle’s lively Romanat Square and the tranquility and serenity of Adi Haqi, where the city’s iconic Martyrs’ Memorial Monument is located, to the uniquely Meqellesque street culture at the city’s infamous Kebele 16. Residents’ disappointment followed the reelection of Abay Woldu, chairman of the TPLF and chief of the regional administration, after an unprecedented vibrant public discourse on the streets of Meqelle, on social media and in the convention hall that directed harsh criticism against him.

The perceived struggle between members of the TPLF leadership in Tigray and in Addis Abeba, where they hurl accusations and counter-accusations at one another, added fuel to the tension there. The Addis Abeba group accuses the other of being weak in leadership, while the later claims the Addis Abeba group has lost touch with the reality faced by people in the region. Yet, each alleges that the other is immersed in corruption. Abay’s reelection comes as a truce – a gesture to appease everyone and offer a final opportunity to right the wrongs.

The picture is no different from the coalition Front.

Given the heightened level of anticipation, particularly among the youth that the Conventions would usher in a new generation of leadership, the four coalition members of the ruling front have kept their chairmen, while the EPRDF Convention has reinstalled Hailemariam Desalegn as its chairman.

Experts are equally puzzled with the party’s decision to keep its leaders intact, despite public uproar and outcry on its poor performance in areas of good governance, delivery of public services, administration of justice, and ensuring rule of law. There has been a major difference of views within the party’s rank and file over the extent of these problems. Those who were vocal in raising these issues were silenced, accused of exaggerating the problems and blamed for longing for Utopia.

Such sharp differences over the party’s records came to light during the Convention in Meqelle. A reformist group comprising mainly the veteran and senior leaders was seen making its case strongly and passionately. They appeared to have wanted to bring back some of the retired veterans of the Front, as some put it, to save the movement from collapsing.

Another group has emerged articulating the need to maintain the legacy of their late leader, Meles Zenawi, and the issue of succession he had championed while he was alive.

An expert, who once lectured at Meqelle University and lived in the town for many years, sees these two alternatives as presenting their own respective dilemmas.

“The Front has failed to produce capable and dynamic young leaders to take up the leadership and shoulder the responsibility,” he told Fortune.

This is particularly true of the TPLF, the most senior member of the ruling coalition, which is seen struggling to cast off the shadows of its longest serving leader. The EPRDF too has underperformed, as the saying goes, “leadership is what happens when the leader is not there.”

But there is the second alternative, which goes against the very principle of the Front’s succession plan. The only viable decision to keep both sides content was to reelect the same leaders of the coalition members, but on the condition that their administration exerts utmost efforts to address chronic good governance and rule of law issues voiced by the public at large.

Critical voices within appear to have found solace in the entrance of new members, such as Getachew Assefa, to the politburos of the respective parties and the executive committee of the ruling EPRDF.

“The chairs of the parties are as good and as weak as the executive committees they work with,” a senior member of the TPLF told Fortune.

He maintains that the entire EPRDF leadership has now reached into an understanding and a consensus on the scale and gravity of the problem.

Yet, aside from the question of succession in terms of generational takeover, the expert sees a considerable ideological conflict coming to light. Some members in the EPRDF would like to prioritise and concentrate their efforts on implementing the ideals and directions set out by Meles, without necessarily making any substantive adjustments to their core policies. Others hold the view that the very underlining philosophical pillars of the developmental democratic governmental system to which the EPRDF adheres, is at its embryonic stage. They believe it needs to be nurtured and fine-tuned according to the changing dynamics and needs of the Ethiopian society as the nation moves forward.

Neither of these ideas seems to have refuted the other, nor has a new dynamism emerged. Nevertheless, the division represents the challenge the EPRDF faces in its succession plan and ability to govern a rather polarised society in the coming five years.

If there is anything that makes the EPRDF 10th Convention different from its predecessor, it perhaps took place in the context where the issue of leadership succession received great public attention, but failed to bring about any changes with the four members of the coalition. The Front and its leaders were in the mood of maintaining the status quo, despite continued public discontent.

The youth in particular felt alienated from the real issues that truly matter to them at the Convention, despite statements by Redwan Hussien, serving as the convention’s press secretary, saying various non-member individuals took part in the group discussions over the Convention’s report. This is hardly surprising given the nature of the Front as reactive to social changes throughout most of its history since its first convention in 1989, according to the expert.

“Some youth might feel alienated,” the expert told Fortune. “But, it would be juvenile to expect that this highly reactive Front would be steadfast in subscribing to changing populist attitudes.”

Nonetheless, the overall sense of disappointment that has engulfed Meqelle during the Convention was also reflected at its conclusion where it had adopted nine resolution points. After receiving wide ranging attention during the group discussions of the Convention, the issue of good governance came out as one. Participants of the Convention pledged to fight, “the political economy of rent seeking, corruption and favouritism while promoting public ownership and equitable access to the country’s developmental endeavours.”

But for the young returnee Meqelle resident, beyond the rhetoric, he has deep doubts that the resolution will transcend into anything but an utter and complete exercise in futility, bearing no fruits. He fears the Front has had a track record of identifying good governance as a major impeding social, democratic, developmental and political ailment, but has delivered very little in addressing the issues.  He is not a lone discontented voice whether in Meqelle or in Addis Abeba.

After reelecting Hailemariam as their chairman and Demeke Mekonen, as his deputy, the EPRDFites are all set to form the next administration which will govern the nation for the coming five years. Beyond party convention where centralised democracy is the modus operandi, there is concern among the public that the incoming parliament will perform no differently. Political pundits say despite the Convention, short of the country’s multi-party system flourishing, the outcome will likely lower peoples’ expectations and fuel their fears of an uncertain future.

 


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