The Colourful Convention

The city of Mekelle has had a busy set of events these past two weeks. First it celebrated the annual traditional Ashenda festivity in an upbeat and colourful manner. Residents of the city and its environs, as well as tourists took part in the three-day event. Mekelle also hosted the Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s (TPLF) Convention which convened on August 22, 2015, gaining considerable public attention over six days with extended meetings. Mekelle is now hosting the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front’s (EPRDF) 10th Congress, to add to its hectic convention calendar.

A thousand voting delegates, representing the four member-parties of the coalition on an equal basis, comprise the EPRDF Congress, rendering it the highest body of the Front. Furthermore, 731 observing participants from various walks of life and representatives of 11 foreign parties allied to the EPRDF took part in the opening session of the Congress on August 28, 2015. Members of the party have gathered in Mekelle for their Congress at a time when the nation is registering rapid economic growth, as the Front’s Chairman and the country’s Prime Minister, Hailemariam Desalegn noted in his opening remarks.

The Congress is also taking place in a context of concern surrounding circumstances of rain shortage in some parts of the country. These could have considerable production shortfall impacts on the agricultural sector, which has the lion’s share of the Ethiopian GDP. In addition, the current inflationary pressure in the country has added a certain impetus to the EPRDF Congress. Another point worth noting in the greater scheme of events is the fact that the Congress is taking place right before the ruling coalition forms a government that will assume office for the duration of the next term, after the EPRDF and their allies won all parliamentary and regional seats in the May general election. Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn in his speech described the vote entrusted as “one that could bend our backs and keep us sleepless.”

On the global stage, the Congress is taking place in a situation where policy makers, economists and politicians alike are assessing the effects of the recent Chinese market instability on the Ethiopian economy in terms of Chinese investment and trade.

The 10th EPRDF Congress is expected to make important decisions that will set Ethiopia’s development agenda for the next five years in a backdrop of the country’s underperformance in meeting most of its goals during the first Growth and Transformation Plan. Moreover, this Congress marks the final leg of the three-phased leadership succession plan initiated by the Front at its eighth Congress held in Adama in 2010.

Despite having dominated the 12th TPLF Convention, the issue of leadership succession is expected to receive less focus at the EPRDF Congress, according to our sources. However, given that this Congress marks the final phase of the leadership succession policy and the importance attached to it, by addressing the needs and aspirations of the youth with the next generation of leaders, the issue will garner some interesting debates, Fortune has learnt. The public will be closely following developments in this regard as to whether the policy is implemented fully or there has been back-tracking here and there. Across Mekelle’s thriving open-air coffee and beer parlors, locals and guests alike are engaged in lively conversations on whether new policies should complement leadership succession at the EPRDF Congress. Others are questioning the wisdom of replacing capable hands with extensive experience in the name of succession, inquiring if the Front has lost its pragmatic edge in addressing issues when cornered.

After the lively and cheerful official opening of the Congress, sharp criticism and frank evaluation points were raised by participants who were divided into seven smaller groups; and in what is considered to be unique feature of the 10th Congress, non-party guests from all walks of life and invited developmental investors are not only attending the meeting but are also actively forwarding comments and harsh criticism, according to our sources.

During the discussions after the opening ceremony on Friday, the various groups were engaged in evaluating the Congress Report. While participants acknowledged successful results having been achieved in all internal organisational objectives during the first Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP I), they pointed out several shortcomings among senior officials and members of the Front, sources told Fortune.

In line with the Prime Ministers opening remarks, acknowledging, “It is now visible that the rent seeking political economy has overwhelmed our cities,” the participants made a strong case of lack of good governance and justice in the country. Both members of the Front and invited guests made strong claims that problems of indecision are rampant, with little or no initiative to solve the problems by the ruling coalition. Furthermore, our sources, who requested anonymity, noted that, some participants sent clear messages to the Front that the people are nearing their limit with regard to shouldering the load of poor governance and lack of justice. They accordingly said the Front should take accountability seriously and take action against individuals in the rank and file of the coalition, otherwise it risks alienating the masses.

Regarding the building a democratic system and promoting developmental good governance, the Congress reported that a significant number of MPs have been assigned to executive posts, hindering their ability to serve as an elected members of the highest assembly of the land, where popular sovereignty is expressed. The Congress further noted that good governance is resiliently bonded with development and democracy. Despite widespread efforts to promote good governance, the outcome has been disappointing to the public, according to the report.

Fortune has learnt that some of the shortcomings observed in senior leadership members and members of the Front include lack of strong and deep understanding of the Front’s political world view, slow progress and lack of performance uniformity in galvanising the Front to play a prominent role in the country’s political economy, lack of fundamental progress in improving efficiency and limited clarity in outlook to mobilise members and resources. Furthermore, despite increasing the number of its members to historical highs – totaling 7.4 million – serious questions are raised regarding the quality of their capabilities and some even allege that new recruits join the Front for personal gains. The report also outlined a significant ailment in relation to a rent-seeking, anti-democratic and opportunist mindset at all levels of the Front’s leadership structures.

In connection with the multi-layered leadership weaknesses, the Front’s various leadership committees, basic organisations and cells have sunk into anti-democratic, narrow-minded, chauvinistic, opportunist and factional tendencies; rather than serving as prime stages for political struggle.

In keeping with the Front’s former intellectual anchor Meles Zenawi’s legacy, the Congress Report indicated progress in green development should be expanded and be guided by complete information.

The Congress Report shows two major sets of shortcomings with the issue of leadership succession; on the one hand the incoming new leadership, though relatively capable and fairly experienced on its own right, lacks systematic and institutional mechanisms to share experience from the outgoing leadership to be able to shoulder its responsibilities. On the other hand, some outgoing leaders tended to undermine the capabilities of the incoming leadership and often depicted a gloomy picture even when things were going well, though the report pointed that this misconception is being resolved.

The other sticking point with the issue of succession policy highlighted in the congress report is lack of focus and planning at intermediate and lower leadership levels of the Front. The problem is compounded by the lack of engagement between the outgoing leadership and the next generation of leaders.

In the macro-economic sphere, the congress observed that a huge gap is witnessed in the country’s export performance, though huge accomplishments have been expressed in double digit annual growth rates.

Agricultural development programmes based on an expansion strategy of best practices by model farmers was largely successful, not only in boosting productivity but also in promoting irrigation schemes and environmental conservation, the Congress report indicates. However, high-yielding agricultural sectors such as animal husbandry and fishery registered minimal results.

Framed under agricultural and rural development programmes, efforts to create jobs for the youth on and off the farm have met mixed results, according to the report, with hundreds of thousands of youth benefiting, while a significantly larger number of youth in the rural parts of the country  remain unemployed.

Notwithstanding major accomplishments in total area of irrigated land by federal and regional authorities, private developers and sugar plantations, progress made in the sector has a sizable gap compared with the original goals set in the plan, the report shows.

The second phase of the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II) is dubbed as a significant chapter in the country’s march towards a mid-income country by 2025. GTP II, the report states, is designed to promote fair participation and equitable benefit in development for all citizens, through developmental political economy and common politico-economic community. No significant shift from the first GTP, however, is expected as the Prime Minister indicated that the same planning model will be adopted, saying, “the first GTP has taught us the importance of planning for stretched goals and breaking the cycle of saying, ‘it is impossible’.”

Though the four coalition political blocks of the EPRDF; the TPLF, the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM), the Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO) and the Southern Ethiopia People’s Democratic Front (SEPDM), have different priorities and implementation preferences in their respective spheres of influence such as issues of migration and unemployment, they share certain commonalities on issues of poor governance and corruption.

The theme of the EPRDF Congress, “To live up to people’s trust: utmost growth and transformation” kicked off with a generally cheerful mood expressed on the faces of the thousand-plus delegates. Questions remain about how old alliances will play out in implementing the succession programme to the fullest and if new, more attainable, policies will materialise as the nation is set to embark on yet another highly ambitious development plan. Moreover, judging by the progression of the initial group discussions at the congress, the leaders are in for a tough five-year term if they only give lip-service to issues of good governance and remain oblivious to the public’s call to heed the call to realise tangible transformation in good governance and justice.

In the briefing given by Redwan Hussein, minister of government communications, presentation of the group reports and general discussion will continue today, which was initially scheduled as closing day. However, Fortune understands that the final day is now likely to be Monday August 31st.


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