It takes an exceptional reform-minded party and a leader to shepherd a people into a new political life and era.
Our new Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed (PhD), has set exactly the right tone to achieve this remarkably difficult feat during his address to the nation. He expressed strength and humility at the same time making it clear that he is proud to be an Ethiopian while asking for forgiveness for the errors and violations of the recent past; affirming continuity through embracing the rule of law and the constitution while welcoming a robust democracy and the change that it will undoubtedly bring.
In speaking about his mother and his wife, Abiy has given us a glimpse of the ethics that guide his life. For generations, the mothers of Ethiopia have silently and uncomplainingly borne the burdens of the ambitions of their husbands and sons. During the years of revolution and war, they were ready to sacrifice everything, to gain nothing for themselves.
Our mothers must finally win the recognition they never sought but have always deserved. I bear witness to this truth. I count my mother among these noble souls.
Their prize should take the form of simple normality in which they can see their families enjoy stability, in which progress can be achieved without destruction and mayhem, and in which children and grandchildren can grow up safely without political leaders demanding that they risk their lives.
The young people of Ethiopia have been at the forefront of every change that our country has undergone. By force of ideas and ideals, by bearing arms, stones and placards. Today’s political dispensation was induced and sparked yet again by the young. Now the torch passes to the rising generation.
Every patriotic Ethiopian must wish Prime Minister Abiy well. If he succeeds, then we all succeed.
How should a wise patriot understand the situation in our country today?
Our axiom, I believe, is that we have learned many painful but essential lessons over the last two generations. We need equally to recognise our successes and admit our shortcomings – and those triumphs and failings are to be found across the board.
The most important lesson is that public affairs are not a zero-sum game. For some of us to gain, it is not necessary for others to lose. On the contrary, all Ethiopians will rise together, or fall together. We should never trust a political agenda that begins with wrecking what we have so that something better may come.
The way ahead lies through respectful dialogue, building consensus, and reform. That reform may be rapid and far-reaching – but it should never be the brute application of dogma, but should instead be creating the space where diversity and pluralism can flourish.
For another lesson that we have learned is that there is no single monolithic formula for our country. The EPRDF was conceived as a revolutionary party with an ideology and organising principle, but it turned into a big tent within which many different viewpoints could be heard, and many various constituencies could organise. The days of single-minded true believers have passed. There can be no more political settlements imposed; it will be difficult to govern Ethiopia without consent.
There is an underlying solidity to Ethiopia’s social contract of the rule only by consent. It is one of the long-term legacies of the EPRDF’s armed struggle. For 16 years of struggle, the fighters of the EPRDF were ready to sacrifice everything for victory.
Most liberation movements that win power come to see that power, and all the privileges that go with it, as their entitlement forever. Reformers in the EPRDF should recognise their ultimate victory in the triumph of human rights and democracy. This is a nobility of spirit that must be honoured.
With every passing day, it is getting more plausible that Ethiopia’s politics is entering a new era, of tolerant pluralism. For sure, some social media is dominated by polarizing voices and the official media remain unsatisfactory. Public Politics has, for now, been confined to the debates within the EPDRF, which is far from satisfactory.
As institutions, our political parties – in government and opposition – are uneven, in transition or work in progress. But our social capital is strong, and for now, that is compensating.
In his speech, Abiy has shown a keen sense of where Ethiopia’s societal strength lies. This is important: this transition cannot be squandered. If Ethiopia were to follow the path of most Arab Spring countries – Egypt is falling back to authoritarianism; Yemen, Syria and Libya are collapsing into chaos – that would be a historic cataclysm.
Today, our indications are promising. The army and security must play their constitutional role and stay out of politics. Extremists with populist and exclusionary agendas are on the margins. Our new Prime Minister has gravitated towards the political centre, aware that the mechanism for change is political reform, and that the reform agenda must be managed through consensus building.
Our country lies in a troubled region, and in recent years more and more countries have been meddling in the affairs of the Horn. Remarkably, despite our internal difficulties, Ethiopia has remained a bastion of stability in a turbulent region. We still contribute peacekeepers and diplomats to help resolve the conflicts in neighbouring states; we still play a constructive role at the African Union and United Nations.
For two decades, some have predicted that we will fall apart like a rotten log. That has not happened so far and I have a strong conviction that it won’t happen in the future.
Abiy has extended a hand of peace to Eritrea: our friends in Asmara would be well advised to take that offer, not just because the strategy of waiting for Ethiopia to fail is as mistaken today as it has ever been. But also because neither us nor the Eritreans can afford to remain divided by conflict and mistrust when we collectively face far bigger problems that we must overcome together.
The challenge of political reform in Ethiopia is that we have so little experience of managing it. Our elites and commentators range from the cynical and fatalistic to the aggressively arrogant and assertive. Too few of our political class have experience of the kinds of bargaining and compromise, reaching across the aisle to make a pact with a political rival, and working for the common good with others whom we disagree with.
I am mindful of the capacity of the working experience of everyday politics within the EPRDF for the party to work through its crises, up to now. But the many years in which all others were excluded from the workings of public administration, and shut out of debates on matters of public interest, have taken their toll. The social capital of trust, of community ties to those who exercise public authority, have been strained.
Our new Prime Minister has a tough challenge. The public has high expectations for change – and some of those expectations require time and their mutually incompatible. There will inevitably be disappointments. There are many ready to ignite an agenda based on fear should he falter.
Abiy also has a tremendous asset. His party has committed itself to reform, and the state institutions are functional. But, our society is stronger, for 50 years of upheavals have not weakened Ethiopia’s social capital. To the contrary, they have strengthened it.
Ethiopians have a sincere appreciation of the gains of stability, coexistence and respect for one another and order, and a profound understanding of the perils of charging down the wrong path. Our society is bigger, stronger, and wiser than our politics, and the wise patriot would respect that.
This is too important a moment for Ethiopians to be spectators in their country’s turning point. It is a moment to welcome the new order and to talk constructively about how we can contribute to a balanced, moderate, patriotic new political dispensation. We should not risk our transition by making maximalist demands, or threaten to burn the country should our ultimatums not be met. We need to cultivate a political culture of respect, compromise, patience and give-and-take.
It can start with a robust national political dialogue on what kind of Ethiopia we want, and how we can safely get there.
But at least one thing can be settled with no need for an extended discourse. Ethiopia should be prepared, sooner than later, for a political landscape where the EPRDF would be just one of the parties in the country with the capacity to govern, and the consent for that privilege to be conferred by the Ethiopian electorate. That is when we would say this ancient country – a beacon of hope for the black race – has achieved sustainable peace, democracy and economic development.
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